being happy to eat what you're fed
be happy to eat what you're fed.
you can't force people to trade with you at prices that are good for you (and bad for them.)
you have to wait.
and you need realistic expectations about what the market gods will feed you.
so, you're running a trend-following strat?
at best - you're systematically harnessing a very weak tendency for risk assets to trend slightly, esp in times of market stress or euphoria.
you can't get more out of it than exists in the market.
no amount of skill on your part is gonna make shit trend when it don't.
so you must accept it's a noisy, high variance strategy, and harness it broadly and with reasonable expectations.
no amount of smarts can engineer opportunities that aren't there.
so, you want to harvest the volatility risk premium?
well, then you gotta be prepared to get smashed in the face occasionally.
it's the price you must pay for the returns.
you can't run away from it.
you might be able to push probabilities in your favour a little, but no smarts will make that risk go away.
...
it's important to know what you're being paid for.
- who is feeding you?
- what's the price you need to pay?
every genuine market opportunity you can exploit sucks in some way. (Otherwise, others would eat it all up.)
know the price.
accept it and manage it.
or don't trade it.
beep...boop.